Economic History Obama Market Guide

Obama Terms 1 & 2, Post-Recession

Track SPY volatility through Obama Terms 1 & 2 and the post-Recession expansion from July 2009 through December 2016.

Section: Economics Period: 07/2009-12/2016 Published: 2026-03-07 Updated: 2026-03-07

Obama Terms 1&2, post-Recession (7/2009-12/2016)

SPY Up Days
Jul 15, 2009: +2.97%	Aug 09, 2011: +4.73%	Aug 11, 2011: +4.62%	May 10, 2010: +4.39%
Nov 30, 2011: +4.33%	Aug 26, 2015: +3.90%	Aug 23, 2011: +3.43%	Oct 27, 2011: +3.43%
Oct 10, 2011: +3.41%	May 27, 2010: +3.29%	Jul 07, 2010: +3.13%	Dec 20, 2011: +2.99%
Jun 10, 2010: +2.95%	Sep 01, 2010: +2.95%	Nov 28, 2011: +2.92%	Sep 07, 2011: +2.87%
Aug 29, 2011: +2.83%	Jun 02, 2010: +2.59%	Jan 02, 2013: +2.54%	Sep 08, 2015: +2.51%
Jun 29, 2012: +2.50%	Aug 27, 2015: +2.43%	Jan 29, 2016: +2.47%	Dec 18, 2014: +2.40%
Mar 01, 2016: +2.39%	Jun 15, 2010: +2.35%	Sep 26, 2011: +2.34%	Jun 06, 2012: +2.30%
Oct 04, 2011: +2.26%	Jan 06, 2011: +2.26%	Oct 29, 2009: +2.25%	Jul 22, 2010: +2.25%
Nov 09, 2009: +2.23%	Nov 07, 2016: +2.22%	Aug 02, 2010: +2.21%	Oct 10, 2013: +2.19%
Aug 15, 2011: +2.18%	Dec 01, 2010: +2.17%	Jul 23, 2009: +2.33%	Sep 24, 2010: +2.12%
Oct 05, 2010: +2.09%	Sep 06, 2012: +2.05%	Dec 04, 2015: +2.05%	Oct 18, 2011: +2.04%
Dec 17, 2014: +2.04%	Jan 22, 2016: +2.03%

SPY Down Days
August 8, 2011-6.66%	Aug 4, 2011 -4.78%	Aug 18, 2011: -4.46%	Nov 09, 2011: -3.67%
Jun 24, 2016: -3.59%	Jun 04, 2010: -3.44%	May 06, 2010: -3.23%	Sep 22, 2011: -3.19%
Aug 21, 2015: -3.18%	Feb 04, 2010: -3.12%	Jun 29, 2010: -3.11%	Sep 01, 2015: -2.96%
Sep 21, 2011: -2.94%	Jul 02, 2009: -2.91%	Jul 16, 2010: -2.88%	Oct 03, 2011: -2.85%
Aug 11, 2010: -2.82%	Oct 30, 2009: -2.80%	Nov 01, 2011: -2.79%	Jul 31, 2014: -2.00%
Sep 09, 2011: -2.67%	Oct 01, 2009: -2.58%	Sep 28, 2015: -2.56%	Aug 02, 2011: -2.56%
Sep 02, 2011: -2.52%	Jan 13, 2016: -2.50%	Jun 20, 2013: -2.50%	Sep 30, 2011: -2.50%
Jun 01, 2012: -2.47%	Oct 31, 2011: -2.47%	Aug 17, 2009: -2.43%	May 04, 2010: -2.39%
Jan 07, 2016: -2.37%	Nov 07, 2012: -2.37%	Apr 27, 2010: -2.33%	Apr 15, 2013: -2.29%
Feb 03, 2014: -2.28%	Jun 01, 2011: -2.28%	Jun 21, 2012: -2.23%	Nov 23, 2011: -2.21%
Jan 22, 2010: -2.21%	Sep 01, 2009: -2.21%	Jan 15, 2016: -2.16%	Dec 08, 2011: -2.12%
Aug 20, 2015: -2.11%	Jun 29, 2015: -2.09%	Apr 10, 2014: -2.09%	Jan 24, 2014: -2.09%
Oct 09, 2014: -2.07%	Sep 28, 2011: -2.07%	Feb 22, 2011: -2.06%	Jul 27, 2011: -2.03%
Oct 25, 2011: -2.01%	Aug 10, 2011 -4.41%

Summary

The Great Recession left a very long lasting impact on the global economy and despite America officially emerging out of it fairly quickly, the damage lasted for some years. Volatility continued throughout 2009, much for the same reasons it had earlier in the crisis; bad economic reports, missed earnings reports and persistent fears that “the bottom” had not yet come. In 2010, attempts to regulate banks by Obama and the severe economic weakness of multiple member states of the European Union caused constant stress (it can’t be overstated), but there were signs that the U.S. economy was on the mend, particularly housing prices. A slowdown in China’s booming economy also caused an undue amount of stress. 2011 saw yet more stress as a result of the EU, and both the EU and the U.S. were forced to issue gigantic bailouts in order to keep their respective economies from collapsing. Mixed economic reports kept traders on their toes. Volatility had slowed down by 2012 & 2013, though some issues in Europe & China, occasional bad economic data, and political infighting between the Obama administration and Republicans kept things interesting. By 2014, the FED began rolling back its aggressive buybacks that it had instituted to bail the country out during the recession and in 2015 concerns about the growth of the Chinese economy remerged and “the Greek problem” still remained unresolved for the EU. In 2016, China again dominated the news cycle and a huge collapse in oil prices suggested to some that low demand indicated a weak economy.

Key Data to Keep Track of:

Economic Data: Unemployment numbers, Manufacturing statistics, Housing numbers, Consumer sentiment etc.
Corporate earnings reports
Solvency of the European Union
Government handouts in the form of stimulus packages, as well as the political conflict over these projects
Growth Numbers Associated with China
FED announcements and comments

2009

July: Jul 22nd (-2.91%), Jul 15th (+2.97%), Jul 23th (+2.33%)

Though the Great Recession was officially over, the rest of 2009 was by no means a straight line up year for the market. The first volatile day came on the second day of the month, 7/2, this time thanks to yet another disappointing jobs report. Yet another 467,000 jobs were lost in June, pushing unemployment to 9.5% and more manufacturer’s earnings were due next week; optimism was at an all time low. As a fun fact, there appears to have been a technical glitch that disrupted trading during the day, causing the market open time to be extended an additional fifteen minutes. What’s strange is the quote that came immediately after, “There is a very significant barrier at 870 on the S.& P.,” said Bruce Bittles of Robert W. Baird & Company. “If we broke that level our confidence on the economy would have to be downgraded,” Mr. Bittles added. Seemingly, there was a lot of fighting to maintain the floor, so much so that something broke. Or “they” pulled the plug to prevent the floor from collapsing in. At any rate, it’s a curious incident, doubly so since it isn’t properly explained and the quote follows it immediately, without any context.. 7/15 saw the market catch a break, thanks to Intel clearing a strong earnings report and suggesting that the next quarter was on track to be even stronger. Given rock bottom prices people bought in and despite another Labor Department report indicating yet another jump in the Consumer Price Index. Funnily enough, even back then, AMD shares ended up outperforming Intel’s, even though the day's gains are credited to it! Maybe things will turn around in the next decades. 7/23 was fairly historic, as the Dow Jones closed above 9,000 for the first time since it fell well under it in January. A 39% gain in just over half a year! The week before had seen around 100 major companies beat quarterly earnings, including Ford, which had just narrowly escaped bankruptcy. However, Ford, like Starbucks and IBM, managed better numbers, not by sales increases, but by aggressive cost cuttings; mostly layoffs. The economy was still in a rough spot, but at least credit had become available to fledgling companies. The excitement was short lived; Microsoft and American Express both missed earnings after close, sending futures straight down.

August: Aug 17th (-2.43%)

With the American economy still hobbling about, the market came down with another battering. 8/17 opened with another poor Consumer Data report. To top it off, Bank of America and Capital One said credit defaults had risen in July, Lowe’s missed expected profits by 19% (strongly suggesting the consumer was still unwilling to spend). The Chinese and Japanese (Nikkei fell -3.1%, worst fall in 5 months) markets also fell substantially, as these export based economies grew worried that their best customers had run out of money to buy their goods.

September: Sep 1st (-2.21%)

There seems to have been a strong sell-off in the financial sector (likely due to how weak it had been for so long) which started with AIG, and spread to Bank of America, Citigroup, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae. It also seems that an Institute for Supply Management report saved the market from spiraling further down, as manufacturing was reported to be bouncing back.

October: Oct 1st (-2.58%), Oct 29th (+2.25%), Oct 30th (-2.80%)

The first day of October ripped down just like the month before. 10/1 opened with another Institute for Supply Management report indicating a slow down in manufacturing growth, which overshadowed good news about a recovery in both the housing market (6.4% increase in home sales) and consumer spending numbers (1.3% rise). A weekly unemployment report showed that new jobless claims had risen to 551,000, which could not have helped. The IMF issued a report raising the global growth outlook from 2.5% to 3.1%. On the tail end of the month, 10/29, after four days of significant selling, news broke out that the economy had grown 3.5% in the third quarter, the first growth of the entire year, and the longest contraction since World War II had ended, apparently. This was great news at the time and was immediately plucked the following day, 10/30. Another computer glitch appears to have occurred, this time erroneous orders first thing at the opening bell, seem to have overwhelmed NYSE computers. The outcome seems to have been a sudden decline in the market. The Commerce Department showed the largest drop in consumer spending in 9 months and an analyst suggesting Citigroup would have to write off a big portion of its $38 billion in tax benefits sent its shares flying downwards. I can’t help but wonder about yet another computer glitch crushing the market, just a day after plenty of bulls probably opened calls, coaxed by the goods news that had come out just the day before. Baseless speculation of course, but the timing is, again, really odd.

November: Nov 9th (+2.23%)

Despite the continued tumbling of the dollar, both the stock market and gold (which hit an all time high of $1103) advanced together. The devaluing of the dollar seems to have been taken as a boon for American exports. Maybe it was just a “bad news is good news” sort of thing, or other underlying factors were at play. For now, rock bottom interest rates and cheap dollars were considered a good thing for the market, things like inflation were problems for the future. According to the article, since early September, there had been 18 separate trading sessions with volatility exceeding 1% in either direction. Things were still choppy.

2010

January: Jan 22th (-2.21%)

Peaking off a three loss streak, 1/22 was the culmination of worries about banks, both their earnings and Obama’s recently announced plans to regulate and reform the banking industry by introducing restrictions. Bernanke's confirmation for a second term as Federal Reserve chair was met with increased opposition as well, seemingly suggesting that political clashes were going to affect the future of the banking system. This comment seems to have really rattled investors as banks were just starting to recover (thanks to government bailouts) and problems in Europe (namely Greece) and reforms in China were considered to be unfortunate timing. General Electric and McDonalds, at least, were able to put up good earnings report numbers.

February: Feb 4th (-3.12%)

The concerns about the state of the European market were seemingly well placed as it had become the new flashpoint for economic uncertainty. Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and a few other EU countries had spent themselves into financial insolvency, a problem they could not simply print their way out of by devaluing their own currency. Defaults were on the table, threatening to undermine the entire EU and prolonging the recession there. Greece was the worst offender, as it was forced to admit that it had been cooking the books and lying. It had the highest levels of debt in the Union, well above what the rules permitted. GDP numbers were also spoofed. Spain’s housing bubble had recently collapsed paired with a 19% unemployment rate! The cherry on top was, yet again, a worse than expected Labor Department report on unemployment claims, which had risen by 25,000 more claims than expected.

April: Apr 27th (-2.33%)

Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greece’s credit rating to junk status, sending European markets down and doing the same on the other side of the Atlantic. That day also featured a Senate panel investigation against current and former Goldman Sachs executives, who were being accused of aggressively marketing mortgages to people when they knew that the housing market was headed into a decline. Mr. Tourre, VP at GS, was implicated in a fraud suit over a mortgage investment he helped create and sell, categorically denying the SEC accusation. 3M, DuPont, and United States Steel all reported positive earnings results and the Home Price Index had its first annual gain since 12/2006! Fears that yet another financial crisis was brewing overshadowed this news.

May: May 4th (-2.39%), May 6th (-3.23%), May 10th (+4.39%), May 27th (+3.29%)

Star Wars day came with seemingly good news, the EU and IMF finally approved their rescue package for Greece, to the tune of $146 billion euros. The catch was, many doubted that this would be enough to help Greece meet its debt obligations. The deal came with stipulations as well, namely austerity measures, which could potentially drive Greece into even worse problems. Other countries that needed bailouts (or on the verge of one) were left unaddressed, leaving the whole affair feeling half-baked. 5/6 was on track for a brutal downturn, with the Dow clocking a 1000 point loss right after 2:30 EST. This dip was mostly bought back up, though for a moment things seemed incredibly shaky. One of the worst affected companies was Accenture, which dropped 90% at one point. There doesn’t seem to be a clear explanation for the dramatic intraday drop and recovery, with the European debt crisis, HFT programs, and a debate in Washington over regulatory reform all being pointed to as catalysts. The event actually resulted in an investigation and it seems a surge in selling occurred at a trading firm in Chicago, which triggered off a chain of continued selling by algorithmic trading programs, leading to the sharp downturn and speedy reversal, all of which occurred over the span of around 16 minutes. The Nasdaq ended up canceling all the trades that took place in hundreds of stocks between 2:40 pm and 3:00 pm. On 5/10 the EU took a decisive step towards halting the spread of the debt crisis: a $1 trillion rescue package was announced. Markets around the world recovered on the news and hopes were high that things were under control. The big number seems to be all it took to send markets flying again, no other happenings were discussed on that day. The highlight news of 5/27 was an affirmation by the Chinese Government that it was not backing out of European investments, given the current debt problems in Europe. This seems to have been a big deal, as American traders were spooked by the prospect of capital flight out of Europe, which would have led to an even worse economic fallout there. The economy had grown at a 3% annual rate, slightly worse than the hoped for 3.4%, but still good enough it seemed.

June: Jun 2nd (+2.59%), Jun 4th (-3.44%), Jun 10th (+2.95%), Jun 15th (+2.35%), Jun 29th (-3.11%)

The primary catalyst for the gain on 6/2 was a stronger than expected increase in home sales. This seems to be connected to a tax credit rush that buyers took advantage of, that was expiring that April. In addition to that, the prices of oil had finally begun to recover alongside the economy, and the oil industry experienced a particularly strong boom. 6/4 showed that Europe was still not out of the woods. The Dow broke under 10,000 again, on news that the financial crisis was spreading into Hungary. In addition to that, a monthly unemployment report revealed sorely disappointing news; the U.S. economy had created only 41,000 jobs the month before, well below the expected +150,000. 6/10 pushed the Dow back over 10,000, as news came out suggesting that, maybe, the economy was not in the dire straits people had thought it was. BP was one of the biggest gainers, partially thanks to a comeback from the day before, where it plunged -16% due lawmaker demands to suspend dividends in order to pay for the Gulf of Mexico cleanup. Other good economic news came from around the globe, with the ECB in Europe raising its economic growth forecast, Japan reporting economic growth in the first quarter, and China reported a $19.5 billion trade surplus in May. Unemployment fell by 255,000 in the U.S., the lowest number since December of 2008. 6/15 saw more rallying. No single headline seems to have moved the market. Boeing, TSMC, and Caterpillar raised their profit forecasts, Best Buy took a hit after scoring a profit but missing expectations. The manufacturing index edged up (factor sector was seemingly recovering), though employment numbers still declined. The personal computer market showed a huge growth, 27% year to year growth in the first quarter alone. Like clockwork, bad news set in on 6/29. The first set of bad news pertained to the Chinese economy, which showed signs of a slowdown. News closer to home, from the Conference Board, reported that the consumer confidence index had fallen ten points. The index of home prices posted only a slight rise, indicating that a sustained recovery in the housing market had not yet come. There was a good amount of commentary on the psychology of the market around this time, no shortage of stressors were active or just recently past. Greece, oil spill, mortgage crisis, the algo supported flash crash. Despite a recovery towards the end of 2009, 2010 was down -7% by market close.

July: Jul 7th (+3.13%), Jul 16th (-2.88%), Jul 22th (+2.25%)

Another huge jump in the opposite direction on 7/7, consumer spending saw a 4% increase during the first five months of the fiscal year, over an average annual rate. This was the largest gain since 2006. State Street Corporation posted stronger than second-quarter earnings. Stress tests were also due to be released later in the week by European banking authorities, which investors were hoping would weed out any hidden problems that had not yet emerged. There really wasn’t much else here, hope was frequently brought up this day, hope that the next week’s corporate earnings reports would prove the economy was in better shape than expected. 7/16 set out to crush the hopes of the last volatile day. Frequent flyers Citigroup and Bank of America reported revenue declines in the second quarter, and that both companies' income from trading had faded as well. This seems to have been a brutal blow to morale, especially for those certain that the economy had been picking up. Another consumer confidence report came showing another decline, this time to the lowest level since August of 2009. Google ended up reporting weaker than expected earnings after close as well, so the sentiment here seems to have been on point. With a different set of companies reporting on 7/22, cheer was back on the Street. AT&T, UPS, 3M, and Caterpillar all posted surprisingly strong sales and profit margins in the second quarter, many of them also issued optimistic forecasts for the rest of the year. Paradoxically, the National Association of Realtors reported a drop in sales of existing homes by 5%, though since this was less than analysts expected, home builders still went up.

August: Aug 2nd (+2.21%), Aug 11th (-2.82%)

8/2 rolled around with more good news on corporate earnings. HSBC and BNP Paribas both reported higher earnings in Europe, taken as very good news given the atmosphere across the ocean. The Institute for Supply Management reported a drop in its manufacturing index, thought it was slight and still fell less than analysts had expected. Of key interest was the success of energy companies, which thanks to consistently recovering oil prices, were finally in a position to start making good money again. The rise in oil prices also indicated that demand had returned and so the economy was recovering. Wallstreet’s drop on 8/11 was precipitated by a drop in the Nikkei, Britain reduced an already diminished forecast for its economy, and China was again teetering towards a cool down in growth. The FED had already reported a slowdown in recovery the day before, and to make matters worse, a new trade report showed that American manufacturers were unable to rely on foreign markets to ease a slow down at home.

September: Sep 1st (+2.95%), Sep 24th (+2.12%)

The key news on 9/1 was another manufacturing survey, this time showing that there was surprising growth in hundreds of companies around the country. This news seems to have come as a surprise, as the previous survey seems to have been rather dour. Manufacturing was now on a 13 month growth streak. News also trickled over from China that its economy had not slowed down, despite persistent concerns to the contrary. 9/24 saw a fairly mixed report, the Commerce Department announced that orders for durable goods fell in the month before, but when the “volatile transportation component” was removed, a 2% increase was logged. Orders for durable goods like computers and communications equipment jumped 4.1%, after declining 5.3% in the month before. This second report seems to have provided most of the optimistic impetus for the day.

October: Oct 5th (+2.09%)

Quantitative easing had just been announced in Japan, setting up markets in America to open on a good note. The only other significant news that came out was another Institute for Supply Management report, this time the service sector index rose, topping indications and showing an increase in employment numbers.

December: Dec 1st (+2.17%)

Economic stress about Europe continued to stabilize and more good news coming out of Asia set things up for a good day. The key news appears to be 93,000 jobs added to the payroll in November, much more than expected. The Labor Department also revised higher the annual rate of worker productivity. Europe was still floundering about, this time with Portugal and Ireland ($111 billion bailout was announced a few days prior) but investors started to ignore it. China reported that its purchasing managers index rose.

2011

February: Feb 22nd (-2.06%)

The Arab Spring had begun and political turmoil across the Arab World led to the overthrow of Egypt and Tunisia, and swept into other countries. It is unlikely that the average investor would have cared much, if not for many of the affected countries being large oil producers. Higher energy prices due to geopolitical uncertainty was not an appreciated sight, especially with the global economy being as fragile as it was.

June: Jun 1st (-2.28%)

Selling reignited on gloomy reports for unemployment, manufacturing indexes, and auto sales. Moody’s also cut Greece’s credit rating once again, this time due to concerns in regards to its debt restructuring.

July: Jul 27th (-2.03%)

More trouble in Congress, this time another impasse concerning raising the debt limit. A couple missed earnings reports from companies like Juniper Networks and 3M also helped sour the mood. 3M claimed that revenue growth would be delayed due to the Tohoku earthquake that had occurred back in March. Since the event was only mentioned in passing in the past month, its worth briefly covering it: almost 20,000 people died, it was the largest earthquake ever recorded in Japan, and the 4th largest earthquake recorded since modern seismography began in 1900.

August: Aug 2nd (-2.56%), Aug 4th (-4.78%), Aug 8th (-6.66%), Aug 9th (+4.73%), Aug 10th (-4.41%) Aug 11th (+4.62%), Aug 15th (+2.18%), Aug 18th (-4.46%), Aug 23rd (+3.43%), Aug 29th (+2.83%)

The debt limit problems were resolved and $2 trillion in federal spending was cute, but 8/2 began a four month period of very volatile trading. The good news was entirely over-shadowed by events in Europe. On this day, fears of sovereign debt defaults in Italy and or Spain re-emerged. Unlike Greece or Ireland, these two are some of the biggest economies in Europe and their failure would have been extremely damaging to the health of the euro and the European Union. The selling on 8/4 appears to be sparked by the ECB’s decision to buy the bonds of smaller distressed countries as a show of support, though for whatever reason, it did not buy the bonds of either Italy or Spain. The European commissioner also made matters worse by seemingly confirming fears about political paralysis of the EU towards resolving the issue. Bad news had already been permeating the US economy, the next day was critically important, as a much expected Labor Department report regarding unemployment was due. Optimism for it was lacking.

8/8 came with a huge drop and a spooky number. The Friday before had seen US government debt being downgraded from AAA to AA by Standard & Poor’s. Asian and European markets were down sharply before they opened. Obama sought to slow down the selling, by claiming the present economic issues were solvable, though political gridlock suggested they were not coming any time soon. The mixture of credit downgrades, stress in Europe, poor economic reports and political impasses in the US seem to have all contributed to the sell offs. The NYT managed to get a quote from Warren Buffet on this day: “If there were a quadruple A, I would give it to the U.S., We will always pay the bonds — the only way we won’t pay is if the printing press strips a gear.”. 8/9 brought an aggressive u-turn, seemingly thanks to commentary from the Fed. It announced that it would not be preparing new rescue packages, and it would leave interest rates unchanged for a couple of years. Initially, this report dropped markets by 1.7% within minutes after 2:15. Suddenly stocks turned around and cleared a difference of 6.4% from the daily lows. The initial reaction to the news was negative, but once traders realized that the near zero interest rates were going to be kept for another few years, the boom was violent. All of these gains were practically wiped out the next day, on 8/10, as once again renewed fears erupted towards Europe’s biggest banks. American financial stocks, which were believed to be the most likely to be affected by these weaknesses, dropped tremendously, with most of the largest banks dropping an average of 10%. Given how interconnected all the European banks were with each other and with banks in America, fears that yet another major recession ala 2008-2009 had returned.

8/11 was the fourth and final day of over four percent consecutive SP500 movements . This time, a drop in unemployment benefit applications was cited as a big part in the recovery. Things must have been truly hectic, as the claims only dropped by a paltry 7,000 claims. The total amount of claims was 395,000, which was still less than what analysts predicted. Unemployment benefit rolls also fell. The only other notable event was a positive earnings report from Cisco Systems, which saw its largest gain in five years after a strong earnings beat. The gains continued on 8/15, primarily thanks to a multi-billion Google deal, a continuous rise in commodity prices, and that European efforts to resolve their debt-crisis were finally having some effect. Special attention was given to a planned meeting between the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany, perhaps active political interest encouraged buying. 8/18 opened with selling in Asia and Europe, the latter especially, as an unidentified bank was forced to borrow directly from the ECB, suggesting chronic debt problems were still present. The big plunge in US markets occurred after the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported a sharp drop off in regional manufacturing activity, once more bringing worries of a slide back into recession. Morgan Stanley also lowered its forecast for both worldwide and domestic economic growth just the day before.

By 8/23, the market had been beaten down enough for the bargain seekers to arrive on the scene. In addition to this, investors started betting that continued weak economic data would entice additional liquidity support from the federal government. A central bank symposium was scheduled to occur very soon, at the FED chair was to give a speech. Bernake had already indicated additional measures should the economy continue to falter and at the present, those conditions were seemingly met. Sales of new homes fell for a fourth consecutive month and so did manufacturing in Virginia. Bad news was apparently already priced in, so this news did little to shake markets. 8/29 kept the trend going, this time a merger between multiple big Greek banks provided some degrees of encouraging news from Europe. The mergers were believed to help banks strengthen their balance sheets. In addition to this, a rebound in consumer spending meant that, just maybe, the economy was not headed towards another recession. Hurricane Irene was nearly dissipated by this point as well, and the damages from the hurricane were far less than expected. The FED did not explicitly agree to flood the market with more money, though it promised it would meet for two days, instead of one, to discuss additional monetary stimulus schemes.

The amount of times the articles jumped between “the economy isn’t as bad as expected” to “the economy is worse than expected” is truly nuts.

September: Sep 2nd (-2.52%), Sep 7th (+2.87%), Sep 9th (-2.67%), Sep 21st (-2.94%), Sep 22nd (-3.19%), Sep 26th (+2.34%), Sep 28th (-2.07%), Sep 30th (-2.50%)

More volatility on 9/2! The Labor Department’s job report announced grim news; August had netted no job growth across the entire USA. The country’s unemployment rate remained at 9.1%. Even worse news came with the announcement of lawsuits against multiple banks, who were accused of misrepresenting the quality of their mortgages. Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and others, were all implicated in marketing their mortgages as securities, despite failing to perform proper due diligence of ensuring mortgage solvency. Billions of dollars were being sought in compensation for these failures. More good news from across the pond 9/7, a court ruling in Germany approved backing of euro zone bailouts across the Union. Attempts to challenge current bailouts were overruled, but the German Constitutional Court claimed it would require the approval of the German Parliament in order to approve future bailouts. Not much else seems to have happened that day, aside from the Italian Senate approving austerity measures. It only took two days for the good news to get blown out, on 9/9. This time, the dip came as a result of contingencies being planned by German banks on a potential Grecian default. In addition to this, a top German official of the European Central Bank stepped down, a decision which seemingly showed a light on the internal discord over how the debt crisis was being handled.

On 9/21, prices fell after the FED announced that it would be selling short term government debt and purchasing $400 billion in long-term Treasury securities. The reaction here seems to be related to investor uncertainty. The government was choosing the security of the bond market and seemingly neglecting the stock market. Moody’s also cut its credit ratings on Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, citing an unlikely government bailout if any of these banks collapsed. Significant downside risks were also claimed by the Fed towards the state of the US economy. 9/22 The selling continued, more concerns about recession 2.0. The president of the World Bank did little to help, as Robert Zoellick said that the global economy was in a “danger zone”. A slowdown in China appears to have also been circulating around, contributing to the stress of 2008 happening all over again.

9/26 saw another proactive attempt by the European Union to shore up its member state debt problems. An approval or denial of the plan by the German government (by far the most important player in EU economics) was due in three days. In Washington, Congress was also planning additional stimulus programs. The more taxpayer bailouts, the better. By yet another twist of fate, German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to alter the second bailout plan for Greece on 9/28. The Greeks, it is imagined, prayed that it was not to be altered any further. The aforementioned German assent to more bailout schemes was now due the next day, and the Chancellors’ last minute change of approach seems to have caused a large degree of stress to markets. 9/30 saw a continued drop in prices. More bad news outside of the EU issues came back up, Chinese manufacturing had shrunk for a third month in a row. Micron Technology posted an unexpected loss, citing poor demand for PCs. Ingersoll-Rand also issued a forecast for an earnings miss. There were some positive consumer confidence reports that came up, but these seem to have only slowed the bleeding. The SPY had dropped 14% by this close, the largest quarterly drop since 2008. The stress of another recession seems to have been fairly justified.

October: Oct 3rd(-2.85%), Oct 4th (+2.26%), Oct 10th (+3.41%), Oct 18th (+2.04%), Oct 25th (-2.01%), Oct 27th (+3.43%), Oct 311st (-2.47%)

The Euro contagion just did not seem to stop spreading. 10/3 saw financial stocks leading another collapse in prices, this time due to fears that the debt crisis in Europe would negatively affect the profit margins of Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, primarily. The catalyst for renewed stress seems to be the Greek government outright admitting it will miss deficit targets for the year, seemingly suggesting that all the money that had already been dumped into that insolvent country was still not enough. On the next day, 10/4, these fears of a continued Euro banking crisis were whisked away. Despite most of the day spent in the red, a 4% rise in markets occurred in 49 minutes, as European officials, again, announced plans that more stimulus was going to be injected into banks. 10/10 kept the wheel turning, this time with both French and German governments jointly stating they were planning to develop a plan to confront the Union’s debt problems. Nothing really definitive, though given the light trading associated with a Columbus Day holiday weekend, that’s all it took. Strange that the UK is consistently absent from any mentions or attempts to solve the EU’s problems, though they were fortunate enough to keep their own currency. 10/18 was helped along by a sell-off the day before, as well as rumors of a nearly finalized French and German bailout plan. Bank of America actually managed to post an impressive $6 billion profit, suggesting that the financial markets were not as devastated as had been thought. An interesting comment towards the debt crisis affecting China was made here. The country’s growth had slowed, to 9.1% in the third quarter. This is an absolutely insane number and investor panic over numbers this large being slightly smaller seems unjustified, at least in retrospect.

10/25 proves that Europe just can’t catch a break and the rest of the world can’t stop hearing about it. Simply put, an abrupt cancellation of a meeting of finance ministers across the Union seems to have suggested things were not getting ironed out. This meeting was supposed to precede a summit of EU leaders. There seems to have been a degree of controversy over extending additional bailout support to Spain and Italy, which were supposed to be one of the largest economies in the Union. The meeting of EU leaders took place without issue on 10/27. Despite appearances, they presented a plan to solve the persistent sovereign debt crisis afflicting the continent, which investors hoped would finally lift the global economy out of the dumps. European stocks jumped tremendously on the news, and Wall Street followed suit. There seems to have been mixed opinions on the effectiveness of yet another bailout, but eventually one of them was probably bound to work. Good news also emerged stateside; GDP figures showed a 2.5% annualized growth in the 3rd quarter, suggesting that fears of another recession were unfounded. The volatility dates don’t actively reflect it, but the NYT claims that October had, by this point, seen the largest monthly rally in 37 years! The US economy seems to have been producing consistently good news and European efforts to deal with their problems seems to have been greatly appreciated. The streak was broken almost as soon as it was mentioned, by 10/30. This drop is strongly connected to then Chinese President Hu Jintao’s comments that gave indication towards any plans to support the EU in dealing with their debt crisis. Less importantly, MF Global Finance was halted after filing for Chapter 11, due to its failure in selling itself to Interactive Brokers. Business activity decelerated in the Midwest and another Fed meeting was around the corner. Rates were expected to be unchanged, but there was interest in what it had to say about the health of the economy.

November: Nov 1st (-2.79%), Nov 9th (-3.67%), Nov 23th (-2.21%), Nov 28th (+2.92%), Nov 30th (+4.33%)

The EU was not yet finished with its market crashing tricks. 11/1 saw Greece make a truly hilarious move, that most likely pissed lawmakers, politicians, and financiers right off. The terms of the bailout were not the rosiest and instead of letting the government take accountability for its mistakes, it instead decided to allow the proposal to be brought to a public referendum. This seems to have seriously jolted markets, as instead of a straightforward bailout, the process could potentially be dragged out for months, or outright denied by the public. There were other concerns across European credit markets, but this news took center stage. 11/9 saw the aforementioned credit market problems explode, this time due to a mass sell off of Italian government bonds. Simply put, the concerns about the Italian economy were now bad enough that some began to worry that it too would need a bailout. Unlike the smaller economies afflicted by the debt crisis, the Italian economy was the third largest, and if it also unwound, Germany could not single-handedly bail it out, meaning things could get ugly for a very long time. By 11/23, the German government auction failed to sell all of the 10-year notes at auction, which as the strongest economy in Europe, it rarely had trouble doing. Since Germany was mostly responsible for the bailouts of Greece and Portugal, investors seemed uncertain that the country could successfully bear these burdens. Borrowing costs for Spain and Italy kept getting higher, jeopardizing these countries ability to finance existing debt, if needed. Washington was still in a deadlock and approaching a deadline on how to address the budget deficit. The Fed also announced it was also planning a fresh round of stress tests of the largest American banks. An anxiety inducing proposal, it would seem.

11/28 saw a big boom thanks to a surge across corporate retailers; Black Friday sales were up around 6.6% and about 10 million more shoppers turned out to the stores since the year before. Finance ministers met up to discuss new schemes to solve the debt situation, with proposals ranging from turning over national budget control to a single EU agency and the coordinated selling of bonds by stronger EU economies to fund ailing ones. The record Black Friday sales seem to have been the largest contributor to the boom. Stress around the state of the EU seems to have deteriorated to the point that it took a global effort to fix things on 11/30. The ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of England (finally), and the central banks of Canada, Japan, Switzerland, all agreed to plan a coordinated action to assist in saving the EU from itself. Things must have been really grim for a turn out this big to be assembled. China also surprised the world with its first cut in bank reserve requirements, in hopes of boosting its economy some more. Additional good news came out, private sector job growth, planned layoffs decreased and another nonfarm payroll report was due soon, which was expected to announce an increase in jobs, substantially more than the prior month.

December: Dec 8th(-2.12%), Dec 20th(+2.99%)

An ECB disclosure on 12/8 indicated that European banks were still hesitant to lend to each other, instead preferring to park money and collect a small amount of interest with the ECB. Despite the super star bailout team prepared to help out, things have not yet improved. Another summit was planned on 12/9, where the fate of Greece was still uncertain, default on debt and damage the EU, or be forced out of the euro bloc entirely. Neither options were great for the European banks, and in turn, American ones. 12/20 featured a couple pieces of good news. For one, Spain had a successful auction of three-month bills, suggesting investors were still confident in the country’s economy. Business sentiment in Germany was reported to have been improving, a major indicator to the health of the European economy. The housing market also seems to have begun healing in the US, the building permits exceeding expectations and housing starts reaching their highest level since April of 2010. The article notes that some of the investors interviewed were puzzled by the size of the rebound given the news, given the euro crisis still being unresolved.

2012

June: Jun 1st (-2.47%), Jun 6th (+2.30%), Jun 21st (-2.23%), Jun 29th (+2.50%)

After six relatively uneventful months, 6/1 clocked in a nasty jobs report. The Labor Department announced that only 69,000 jobs were created in May and unemployment had jumped 0.1% after it had been slowly down trending. It would also appear that very little had changed since December, as the usual suspects of the European debt crisis and a cool down of the Chinese economy had not yet gone away. Like clockwork, recession concerns returned. 6/6 was another stimulus and rate cut hype pump day. Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, merely suggested that interest rates might be cut instead of kept stable. In the US, Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, also merely suggested that additional stimulus packages were still on the table. Neither president made any solid plans, but markets still soared.

6/21 came with the usual troubling news. Manufacturing in China shrank, and business activity across the euro zone contracted for a fifth consecutive month. In the U.S., reports came out of declines in existing home sales and a rise in first-time jobless claims that exceeded existing forecasts. Factory activity in the Philadelphia area showed a substantial contraction from May to June. With negative data flooding the headlines, the market really stood no chance. Apparently over a dozen meetings over bailouts were planned by EU leaders by 6/29, but yet another was announced to save markets. This time, European leaders met in Brussels and agreed to allow bailout funds to be used to prop up faltering banks, a decision very reminiscent of the one taken by the Fed. There was no shortage of concerns that this would be another short-lived rally; a previous 100 billion euro bailout for Spain was brought up, which seemingly only increased its debt load, rather than help keep the country out of a permanent recession.

September: Sep 6th (+2.05%)

By 9/6, it seems that the efforts of the ECB had finally begun to take root. Its’ president, Mario Draghi, announced a bond-buying program that he claimed would be a “fully effective backstop” and ease the struggles of the euro. Back in July, he claimed the ECB would do whatever it takes to save the euro zone and markets had been rallying since then. These plans still had to be approved by different member states, notably Germany, but investors seemed optimistic. The article seems to exude a sense of “we’re ready to stop worrying about Europe” and instead focus back on the economic activity in America, which had been gradually healing around this time.

November: Nov 7th (-2.37%)

On 11/7, Europe finally took a back seat. Coined a post election sell-off, the stock market now had a new topic to worry about; the fiscal cliff. Obama had just won the most expensive election in U.S. history (probably at the time), though problems started immediately. Ratings agencies like Fitch and Moody’s mentioned that there were serious downgrade risks if budget negotiations weren’t sorted out. The divide here was Obama’s preference for taxing wealthier Americans and increasing taxes on dividends and capital gains, whereas Republicans would have much preferred tax cuts and spending cuts. Europe wasn’t totally out of the picture; Mario Draghi (ECB president) made negative comments towards the state of growth in the euro zone. The Greek parliament was essentially being forced under threat (it would certainly default) to pass the bailout bill, which came with a myrriad of austerity reforms that the general public would not be happy with.

2013

January: Jan 2nd (+2.54%)

1/2 opened up 2013 with some good news! The aforementioned fiscal cliff problems were finally resolved as Congress was able to pass a mish-mash of tax increases and spending cuts amenable to both parties. With stress from Washington’s policies seemingly removed, investors were ready to take risks again. The NYT article specifically mentioned that riskier assets like the Russell 2000 saw much more movement than standard bluechips, seemingly suggesting existential threats about the economy had begun to die down. The debt ceiling debate was another issue apparently waiting down the road, but for now, investors seemed happy to buy the day.

April: Apr 15th (-2.29%)

Another sign of economic improvement came alongside a continuous beat down in gold prices, which had dropped -9% on 4/15 after having already dropped -5% the Friday before. Stocks joined the downward journey because of an unexpected report out of China; its economy had slowed down again. Once again, it wasn’t that its economy had shrunk, but instead of growing an expected 8% in the first quarter, they only managed a “paltry” 7.7%. This rate was also slightly slower than the 7.9% growth it had achieved in the fourth quarter of 2012.

June: Jun 20th (-2.50%)

6/20 posted the worst day of 2013. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested that there may be a scale back in the asset purchasing plan. The Fed was currently dropping $85 billion in bond purchases a month. If the economy continued to improve, this buyback program could start slowing down by late 2013 and be closed out in 2014. The good news that the economy was seemingly on the mend was lost and stress that free government cash injections were being cut off took center stage.

October: Oct 10th (+2.19%)

A U.S. government shutdown had been going on for ten days, due to conflicts with Obama and Congressional Republicans over healthcare reform law. By this point, it had seemed that good progress was being made in the negotiations and that the shutdown would soon be over. Another meeting was scheduled the day of and both sides were trying to avoid a possible default by October 17. This meant raising the cap of government debt if necessary. Bad news concerning an increase in unemployment claims, Chevron issuing a profit warning, and Citrix Systems also lowering expectations seem to, at worst, have slowed down the market.

2014

January: Jan 24th (-2.09%)

The aforementioned concerns about buyback cuts from the Fed were finally close to being realized. Now that the economy had started to recover, the emergency measures of rock bottom interest rates and bond buybacks were seen as unnecessary. The free money was coming to an end. In addition, growth in China continued to miss the best expectations and political issues in Turkey, Argentina, and Ukraine were also weighing on people’s minds. The Turkish lira hit a new record low (which was only the beginning) and the Argentine stocks listed on the US market also slid after its peso had the steepest one day decline in 12 years. Microsoft and Honeywell International beat earnings and despite Procter & Gamble missing them, its shares still rose. The general market appears to have ignored this.

February: Feb 3th (-2.28%)

Markets took another downward spiral, reaching the lows of October of the prior year. The American factory sector provided very poor results; new order growth had plunged the most in 33 years. In conjunction with Fed tapering, Chinese slowdowns, and mixed earnings releases, the whole recession debate has been quieted but not entirely put to rest. Poor currency performance across a variety of different emerging markets triggered central banks to either raise interest rates or intervene in markets. The silver lining in all of this was that nearly 70% of the 250 companies that presented earnings in the S&P 500 beat expectations, breaking the average 63% win ratio since 1994 and the 67% of the past four quarters.

April: Apr 10th (-2.09%)

4/10’s drop off was largely attributed to a tech and biotech sell-off. Tech stocks from recent IPOs were particularly at risk. King Digital Entertainment, of Candy Crush fame, was down -19% since IPO, Zulily, a company focused on mothers and children, dropped 7% and Ally Financial, a bailed out auto lender, dropped 4% on its own IPO date. With the Fed planning a cutback in stimulus, poor performance from retail earning reports and more China malaise, concerns about the many IPOs meeting expectations were just the cherry on top.

July: Jul 31st (-2.00%)

Another day of no decided winners responsible for the crash. Amongst the top contenders were a series of disappointing earnings for a few major companies, Argentina’s apparent default on its debt, as well as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East (still, huh?). Fairly strong economic reports were also released, but instead of cheering for economic recovery, concerns that these reports would tighten the Fed’s monetary policy took precedence. Overall though, the sentiment amongst most analysts was surprisingly nonchalant, as it was the first significant drop since April.

October: Oct 9th (-2.07%)

The drop on 10/9 had been precipitated by the largest gain of 2014 on 10/8, which saw markets rise by 1.75%. As to why things changed so dramatically just the following day, the energy sector was supposedly to blame. For one, coal stocks took a beating across the board after Morgan Stanley downgraded the entire sector. Oil companies were also struggling, as the price of oil had been declining for multiple weeks. Renewed signs of economic slowdown combined with high oil production sent the demand and price for oil downwards. The previous week had been fairly volatile and the only other news worth mentioning here was the stepping down of two CEOs; Gap’s and AMD’s.

December: Dec 17th (+2.04%), Dec 18th (+2.40%)

12/17 saw the best day of the year and it only took one thing. The Fed assured investors it would remain patient in its approach to raising interest rates. The price of oil had recovered from its sluggish behavior, causing energy stocks to lead the pack in price movement. It had already been six years since the 2008 fiasco and the market had been bullish for the entire time, largely thanks to government stimulus plans. For now, this policy would still continue; the first three months of 2015 were not expected to see any changes in interest. 12/18 took the prior day’s crown, not just for the year, but for the past three years. Much of the same factors from the day before contributed to the rise; stabilizing oil prices and continued Fed complicity in the market. In other news, Oracle beat earnings and made big gains. There really is not much else brought up for the day.

2015

June: Jun 29th (-2.09%)

Just when you thought Europe had fallen out of concern, Greece came back to punish investors for doing so. Debt talks between Greece and the EU failed, just as stock prices had nearly recovered to all time highs. The government there was forced to shut down the financial system for six days to stop a run on the banks and it seems that most investors had forgotten that there was any reason to be weary of Greek problems in the first place. The ECB capped the amount of support it was willing to provide Greek banks with and a referendum was declared for a public vote on what terms should be agreed to. In other words, things were still solidly unresolved. More China growth panic and a debt crisis brewing in Puerto Rico also contributed.

August: Aug 20th (-2.11%), Aug 21st (-3.18%), Aug 26th (+3.90%), Aug 27 (+2.43%)

8/20’s drop was triggered by a sell-off in Chinese energy and property stocks, which spread across the globe. One of the biggest questions was about Beijing’s continued devaluation of the yuan, which forced both Vietnam and Kazakhstan to follow suit in devaluing their own. Emerging markets took a strong beating alongside Chinese stocks. An interesting mention from the article was the belief amongst traders that a good chunk of the selling that day was tied to algorithms: selling got worse as the SPY broke its 200 day moving average. 8/21 seemingly justified these concerns, as the sell-off became much deeper, leading to the worst day on the market since November of 2011. To be fair, bad news did emerge alongside it. Another business activity gauge from China showed another drop, though again, the numbers seem quite low. 47.1 actual from 47.8 the month before. Chinese markets reacted very negatively to this news, but to make matters even worse, Greece played another wild card. The country’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, unexpectedly resigned. Just as the country had gotten its hand on some of the bailout money, it was now headed to a new election in the following month without an established government to dispense with the money appropriately. After a six day beatdown, 8/26 soared. The night before, China had announced it would cut interest rates, cooling heads and giving bargain hunters an opportunity to jump into the market. Tech stocks led the rise in markets and there still remained a strong degree of optimism that interest rates would not be raised by the Fed in the coming Fed meeting. 8/27 kept the momentum going, helped along by a rebound in oil prices (signalling commerce was picking up again) as well as continued strength in the US economy. The only real news that pushed markets up was a second estimate of US GDP, this time at 3.7% annualized, as opposed to the previous 2.3%.

September: Sep 1st (-2.96%), Sep 8th (+2.51%), Sep 28th (-2.56%)

9/1, China! Despite the U.S. economy being nothing but green, an official report out of China indicated that manufacturing had fallen to a three year low in August. Yet again, the manufacturing index fell from 50 in July to 49.7 in August. Nothing earth shattering, but any hiccup in China seems to consistently cause undue movements in Wall Street, which were in lockstep with sell-offs in Shanghai. Anxiety around Fed interest rates still festered, but the meeting was still over two weeks away. 9/8 was precipitated by a rebound in China’s stock market, which was odd, considering that same day news had come out that its exports had shrunk 5.5% year over year and imports had fallen 14%. Why it rebounded on this news, NYT does not speculate, but it jumped into mergers news. The EU was set to approve General Electric’s acquisition of Alstom and Teco Energy was acquired by Emera. The Meredith Corporation was also acquired by Media General. Aside from the mergers, the outcome of the market was truly confusing that day. On 9/28 the market dropped due to renewed China worries. Oddly enough, the article does not clarify what specifically spooked investors about China. The Shanghai Index added 0.3% that day, further confusing things. In other news, Glencore, a commodity trading and mining company, dropped 29% after Investec Securities noted that the company faced a bleak future if commodity prices did not recover. Volkswagen also fell 8.2% after German prosecutors opened an investigation against the former CEO, Martin Winterkorn, to establish his role in the emissions rigging scandal that devastated the popular perception of diesels in America.

December: Dec 4th (+2.05%)

Three events took place on 12/4, for one, the European Central Bank said it was ready to expand the stimulus program if necessary. The Labor Department issued a report that claimed 211,000 jobs had been added in November alone, it was also nine years since interest rates had been raised. Finally, OPEC announced that it would not cut production of oil to boost prices, a decision that harmed energy stocks but thanks to cheaper energy prices, the global economy had a better chance at continued growth.

2016

January: Jan 7th (-2.37%), Jan 13th (-2.50%), Jan 15th (-2.16%), Jan 22nd (+2.03%), Jan 29th (+2.47%)

1/7 was the worst day of one of the worst opening weeks in market history. Problems started in China, where stock prices had fallen so sharply, so quickly, that markets were closed after 30 minutes of trading. This was the second time in a week that a circuit breaker was triggered: any drop over 7% on a key index. There doesn’t seem to be much of an explanation as to why markets in China were so panicked, aside from a mention that the renminbi was approaching a five year low and that the use of circuit breakers kept prices from recovering, encouraging further selling as prices kept dropping and halting. At any rate, DOW & SPY futures reacted very negatively to these happenings. Things kept getting worse on 1/13, as commodity prices continued to collapse (partially thanks to China's stock market unraveling) and crude oil began nearing $30 a barrel. With prices this low, many energy stocks were at risk of bankruptcy. Furthermore, a report was released indicating demand for fuels had slipped last week. Ford and Borgwarner issued negative earnings outlooks while CSX and SuperValu posted earnings misses, tumbling -6.8% and -11.3% respectively.

1/15 kept the tempo for much the same reasons. Oil finally broke down to $28.94 a barrel, sell-offs in China continued and disappointing U.S. economic data came out as well. Industrial production, Producer Price Index, business inventories, and the Empire manufacturing index all fell, though many of them only a small amount. That said, the damage was done. By 1/22, oil was just too cheap. Crude oil jumped 9% on that day alone, bringing up energy stocks across the board and the rest of the market with it. More economic stimulus plans were outlined by Europe and Japan, the latter of which rose 5.9% before US markets opened, setting the stage for the recovery.

March: Mar 1st (+2.39%)

Panic about China and slumping oil prices were now well in the rear view, spending on construction reached its highest level in eight years as well as signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. Even the auto industry was finally turning around. Ford reported a 20% increase in sales, with Honda, Nissan, and Fiat-Chrysler also reported substantial improvements in sales in the past month. Oil prices continued to stabilize upwards and the Chinese government announced plans to support bank lending in an attempt to offset concerns over recent drops in manufacturing numbers.

June: Jun 24th (-3.59%)

This one is nice and easy: Brexit. No one seems to have expected the vote to leave the European Union to work out as expected, but, by a very narrow margin, voters in the United Kingdom chose to leave. Such a result was not expected and the common consensus was that the European economy would suffer without the titanic presence of the UK in the union. Markets had apparently risen dramatically the day before, based on the expectation that the UK would remain, so a bull trap here made matters even worse.

November: Nov 7th (+2.22%)

A nine day slide seems to have led up to the day before election day. Oddly enough, one of the first points brought up as to why markets were on the rise was due to the FBI ending its investigation into the Clinton Emails. Clinton was seemingly much preferred by Wall Street, as the article mentions that the market performed well when Clinton was in the lead and did poorly when things seemed to be neck and neck. This comment, by Jeffrey Hirsch, was particularly baffling but worth pulling out as a curiosity. “Why the gain? Because people generally feel good about doing their civic duty. “It’s a positive patriotic voting mentality,” he said. “Everyone is happy going to the polls, and they’re happy that the election is here and it’s done.”It’s similar to how markets react around Christmas, he said, when people feel good about themselves. “There’s a bullish bias,” he explained. Also coming into play is that on both the day before and the day of the election, investors are more preoccupied with voting than buying and selling stocks, he said. I can’t help but think sarcasm, cocaine, or both, was involved in this response. Hirsch goes on to suggest that more volatility would follow a Trump victory, which would end up being largely true. The following pull is also interesting: The DJIA and the S&P 500 have only posted negative numbers on the day before an election three times over the last 64 years — both fell in 1988 and 2008, while the DJIA dropped in 1968 and the S&P 500 in 1972. Investors do get more jittery on Election Day, with the DJIA falling seven times since 1952 and the S&P 500 dropping six times over the same time period. Keep in mind two more elections have passed since then.

InfoLib

Obama Terms 1 & 2, Post-Recession

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